Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Asteras Tripolis win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AEK Athens would win this match.