Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Narva Trans win with a probability of 42.88%. A win for Tartu Welco had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Narva Trans win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.82%) and 3-1 (5.11%). The likeliest Tartu Welco win was 1-2 (7.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.