Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napredak win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had a probability of 33.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napredak win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Plovdiv win was 0-1 (9.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.