Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasas win with a probability of 38.73%. A win for MTK had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasas win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.12%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest MTK win was 2-1 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.