Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Miedz Legnica win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Zorya Luhansk had a probability of 34.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Miedz Legnica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.63%) and 2-0 (5.85%). The likeliest Zorya Luhansk win was 1-2 (7.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.