Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 40.88%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.