Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotive Leipzig win with a probability of 44.22%. A win for Fortuna Koln had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotive Leipzig win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Fortuna Koln win was 0-1 (8.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.