Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a KAMAZ win with a probability of 44.4%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Neftekhimik had a probability of 25.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a KAMAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.19%) , while for a Neftekhimik win it was 0-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.