Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hegelmann Litauen win with a probability of 50.65%. A win for FC Daugavpils had a probability of 25.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hegelmann Litauen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest FC Daugavpils win was 2-1 (6.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.