Feyenoord and CSKA Moscow will resume their search for a first Europa League win of the group stages when they face off in Rotterdam on Thursday evening.
Group K is proving to be one of the most open of the pools so far, with only three points still separating top from bottom.
Match preview
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As previous European Cup winners and two-time UEFA Cup champions, Feyenoord are the highest-profile team in Group K but nonetheless find themselves propping up the rest after two games.
A chastening 4-1 home defeat to Austrian side Wolfsberger AC on matchday two sent them tumbling to the bottom of the group as the only defeat any of the four teams have suffered in the four matches in that pool to date.
It came as a significant surprise too, with Feyenoord going into that match unbeaten in any competition since December 2019 - an impressive run even accounting for the fact that six months of that was spent out of action due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Dick Advocaat's side made a swift return to winning ways at the weekend, though, hitting a 94th-minute winner to beat Emmen 3-2 and climb up to fifth in the Eredivisie following a string of draws before that.
European victories have been harder to come by; including the matchday one draw with Dinamo Zagreb and that loss to Wolfsberger, Feyenoord have now won only two of their last 17 matches in the Champions League or Europa League proper, losing 11 of those.
CSKA Moscow, by contrast, have seemingly improved their glaring weakness in European football by tightening things up at the back.
Having conceded 14 goals in their previous five Europa League games, the Russian outfit have since only shipped two from their last five outings - including draws against Zagreb and Wolfsberger so far this season.
That defensive improvement shines through in their away form too, with just one goal conceded in their last three such Europa League games, compared to 11 in their previous two before that.
Viktor Goncharenko's side have not exactly been entertainers so far this season with one goal scored and one conceded in their two outings to date, but victory on Thursday would send the Russian Premier League leaders a big step closer to the knockout rounds.
Feyenoord Europa League form: DL
Feyenoord form (all competitions): WDDDLW
CSKA Moscow Europa League form: DD
CSKA Moscow form (all competitions): WWDWDW
Team News
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Feyenoord
Out: Steven Berghuis (leg), Justin Bijlow (unspecified), Nicolai Jorgensen (groin), Leroy Fer (hamstring), Robert Bozenik (ankle), Sven van Beek (ankle), Luis Sinisterra (knee)
Doubtful: Joao Carlos Teixeira (unspecified)
CSKA Moscow
Out: Ilzat Akhmetov (abdominal), Vadim Karpov (head), Kirill Nababkin (ACL)
Doubtful: Georgi Schennikov (muscle)
We say: Feyenoord 1-1 CSKA Moscow
Feyenoord will demand a response from the matchday two result, which fortunately for them did not prove too costly given results elsewhere. CSKA have made themselves a lot tougher to beat in Europe recently, though, so we can see yet another draw in Group K.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data
Barney Corkhill
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 35.78%. A win for CSKA Moscow had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 (11.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
