FC Twente will be looking to boost their hopes of qualifying for Europe when they welcome relegation-threatened Sparta Rotterdam to De Grolsch Veste for their Eredivisie encounter on Friday.
The Tukkers secured a narrow 1-0 victory in November's reverse fixture, with Ricky van Wolfswinkel scoring from the penalty spot in the 83rd minute.
Match preview
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FC Twente extended their unbeaten run to seven matches when they secured a 2-0 win over the 10 men of NEC Breda last weekend.
After Ali Akman was given his marching orders in the 58th minute, substitute Virgil Misidjan and Dimitris Limnios both scored to help the visitors win their 17th league game of the campaign as well as their third in succession on the road.
The Tukkers remain in the hunt for European qualification as they are just three points behind Feyenoord in third with five Eredivisie games remaining.
Ron Jans's men are unbeaten in each of their last nine league matches at De Grolsch Veste, but they will head into Friday's game wary of the threat that Sparta Rotterdam could pose after suffering a 2-0 defeat in their last home meeting against them in December 2020.
Sparta will be high on confidence after securing a slender 1-0 away victory over Vitesse on Tuesday, ending a run of four games without a win.
Despite having only 28% possession, Henk Fraser's side held on for all three points after Adrian Dalmau scored the only goal of the game in the fifth minute, with the striker netting for just the second time in 19 league appearances this season.
That result has boosted Sparta's hopes of survival as they have climbed off the foot of the table and up to 16th place – the relegation playoff position – sitting just one point adrift of safety.
De Kasteelheren have had success against FC Twente in recent years, accumulating seven points from their last five league meetings against them, and another three on Friday would see them claim back-to-back league victories for the first time this season.
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Team News
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FC Twente's only injury concern is with backup goalkeeper Ennio van der Gouw, who is set to miss the rest of the season with a knee problem.
Defender Kik Pierie and midfielder Wout Brama were both fit to make the substitutes' bench last time out and the pair will be in contention to feature on Friday.
Top scorer Van Wolfswinkel, who has 14 league goals to his name this term, missed last weekend's game due to suspension, but the 33-year-old is available to return to the first XI and is likely to replace 19-year-old Manfred Ugalde up front.
As for Sparta Rotterdam, they have a clean bill of health so Fraser has a fully fit squad to choose from and may decide to name the same starting lineup which won in midweek.
Centre-back Bart Vriends will, however, be hoping to force his way into the first XI ahead of either Tom Beugelsdijk or Adil Auassar after beginning on the bench against Vitesse.
Striker Lennart Thy was also named on the bench last time out but could return at the expense of either Dalmau or Mario Engels.
FC Twente possible starting lineup:
Unnerstall; Troupee, Propper, Pleguezuelo, Smal; Zerrouki, Sadilek; Rots, Vlap, Limnios; Van Wolfswinkel
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Abels, Beugelsdijk, Vriends, Durmisi; Mijnans, De Kamps, Van Mullem, Van Crooij; Thy, Dalmau
We say: FC Twente 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
Both sides will head into Friday's game on a high after victories last time out, but Twente will be deemed as favourites considering their position at the top end of the table.
While Sparta will be motivated by the opportunity to move out of the bottom three with maximum points, we feel that the Tukkers will do enough to secure a slender win on home soil and boost their chances of a top-three finish.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 57.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 18.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.96%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
