The last remaining Russian side faces the only Croatian outfit as FC Krasnodar host Dinamo Zagreb in the knockout stages of the Europa League on Thursday night for the first time in their history.
Krasnodar have won each of their last four home matches without conceding a goal, while Zagreb are unbeaten in their last seven away encounters.
Match preview
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Krasnodar's inaugural Champions League outing came to an abrupt end in December as they finished third in Group E behind Chelsea and Sevilla and dropped down to the Europa League.
The Russian outfit were never close to progressing in Europe's elite competition as they completed the group with just one win and two draws from their six matches, finishing eight points behind Sevilla in second place.
Since a 1-0 home victory against FC Ufa in mid-December, Murad Musayev's side have not played a competitive match as the Russian league took its annual winter break. Krasnodar return to domestic action later this week when they face PFC Sochi in the Russian Cup, sandwiched in between their ties with Dinamo Zagreb.
In the meantime, the Bulls have played seven friendly matches against fellow Russian opposition, winning four times and scoring 10 goals in the process.
Krasnodar, who have never previously faced Croatian opponents in Europe, have won just one of their 10 games in the Europa League knockout stages, a 1-0 first leg victory over Fenerbahce in February 2017.
However, victory for the Bulls on Thursday would move them one step closer to progressing into the last 16 of the Europa League for the third time in the last five years.
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Dinamo Zagreb have enjoyed this season's Europa League competition after progressing to the knockout stages courtesy of finishing top of Group K, four points in front of Austrian side Wolfsberger.
After opening their group campaign with two goalless draws, the Blues then claimed four successive wins, scoring nine goals in the process.
Zoran Mamic's side finished on 14 points, matching their tally accumulated in 2018-19, and are one of only six sides who remain unbeaten in this season's competition.
Zagreb goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has kept four clean sheets in the Europa League which can only be matched by Hoffenheim stopper Oliver Baumann, and the Croatian has conceded just once so far, the fewest in the competition.
The Blues have lost just two of their last 17 Europa League matches – winning 11 and drawing the other four – however, both defeats occurred in the knockout phase, losing 2-1 to Viktoria Plzen in February 2019 and 3-0 to Benfica in March 2019.
Claiming a win on the road in Russia would see Dinamo record five consecutive wins in a European competition for the first time.
FC Krasnodar form (all competitions): WWDWLW
Dinamo Zagreb Europa League form: DDWWWW
Dinamo Zagreb form (all competitions): WWLWWW
Team News
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Krasnodar will be without Dmitri Stotskiy, Cristian Ramirez and Kaio, who are all suffering with knee injuries, while experienced forward Ari is also unavailable with a hamstring problem.
Former Newcastle United midfielder Remy Cabella, who scored in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea in December, is set to start in a central role behind 34-year-old Swedish striker and top goalscorer Marcus Berg.
Iranian full-back Sadegh Moharrami is Dinamo Zagreb's only injury concern heading into Thursday's match.
Mislav Orsic, who scored his 11th goal of the season in a 1-0 victory over Osijek last weekend, is likely to keep his place in the starting lineup on the left-wing, with Lirim Kastrati set to feature on the opposite flank.
FC Krasnodar possible starting lineup:
Safonov; Smolnikov, Martynovich, Sorokin, Chernov; Gazinskiy, Vilhena; Wanderson, Cabella, Claesson; Berg
Dinamo Zagreb possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Stojanovic, Theophile-Catherine, Gvardiol, Leovac; Jakic, Ademi; Kastrati, Majer, Orsic; Gavranovic
We say: FC Krasnodar 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb
Both Krasnodar and Zagreb have struggled to progress to the latter stages of European competitions once they get past the group stage and so both sides will be hoping to keep this tie alive and take a positive result into the second leg.
With little to separate the two teams, we can see a draw being played out on Thursday night in what is expected to be a close encounter.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 27.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Dinamo Zagreb win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
