New York City FC will look to consolidate their position in the playoffs when they travel to strugglers FC Cincinnati this weekend.
Ronny Deila's side currently sit in fourth, a whopping 20 points behind runaway Eastern Conference leaders New England Revolution, whilst FC Cincinnati are languishing just one place above the bottom.
Match preview
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Only New England Revolution have scored more goals than NYCFC this season, with Deila's men often entertaining in their Major League Soccer encounters.
Drawing 3-3 with FC Dallas in their last fixture, New York City had taken the lead twice, but were ultimately pegged back by Jader Obrian's equaliser.
Despite having the disruption of playing a selection of their matches away from usual home ground the Yankee Stadium, New York City have enjoyed a relatively successful season so far, winning 10 out of 23 regular-season games.
After failing to make the playoffs in their first season as an MLS club in 2015, the Pigeons have qualified each year since.
Looking to make it for a sixth consecutive season, New York City have a slender four-point margin over CF Montreal down in eighth.
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For FC Cincinnati, the playoffs are nothing more than a distant dream, with Jaap Stam's team set to miss out once again.
Finishing 12th in their maiden MLS season, the Orange and Blues slumped to a 14th-placed finish in the disrupted 2020 campaign and will enter their fixture against New York City in 13th.
With just four wins to their name across 23 matches this season, their form against NYCFC suggests things will likely get worse before they get better for the former United Soccer League side.
FC Cincinnati are winless in their previous five meetings with New York City, losing by a three-goal margin in all but one encounter.
Suffering their second-heaviest defeat as an MLS side when the pair met back in April, Valentin Castellanos was amongst the scorers as NYCFC ran out comfortable 5-0 winners.
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Team News
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Lunging into a late tackle in the 90th minute in New York City's recent 3-3 draw with FC Dallas, Thiago Andrade was shown his first red card since joining the club from Esporte Clube Bahia in the summer.
After missing the FC Dallas game through suspension himself, Castellanos will return to the fold for Deila and the 22-year-old will be looking to add to his 11 league goals already this season.
Following a lengthy stint on the sideline, Héber Araujo made his first appearance in over a year off the bench for NYCFC, racking up 10 minutes during a cameo against FC Dallas.
Maikel van der Werff has missed the entirety of the season for FC Cincinnati and the Orange and Blues' captain will be absent once again.
Joseph-Claude Gyau will also sit the match against NYCFC out, with the right-back still suffering from an Achilles tendon problem triggered against Orlando City in early August.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Matarrita, Hagglund, Vallecilla; Castillo, Valot, Stanko, Cruz, Bailey; Brenner, Vazquez
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Tinnerholm, Sands, Callens, Thorarinsson; Parks, Acevedo Taberez, Medina, Moralez, Tajouri; Castellanos
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-3 New York City FC
Whilst they may have had their sights set on topping the Eastern Conference this season, New York City will still be confident of taking their strong form through to the playoffs, in search of a maiden MLS Cup.
Cincinnati have struggled in their previous meetings with the Pigeons and their form has shown nothing to suggest they will be able to snatch a shock result this time around.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.67%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 24.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
