After capturing his first victory as a Major League Soccer manager last week, Pat Noonan and FC Cincinnati return to TQL Stadium on Saturday with a chance to defeat Inter Miami for the first time in franchise history.
The Orange-and-Blue scored an early goal in both the first and second half to get past Orlando City 2-1, while the woes continue for the Herons, who have dropped back-to-back contests, losing 2-0 at home to Los Angeles FC.
Match preview
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Finally, something good went the way of Cincinnati, who, despite only possessing 30% of the ball last Saturday, made the most of their opportunities in front of goal, scoring on two of their three efforts on target.
A win is all well and good, but now we will see what kind of consistency they can show moving forward, something which has been a trouble spot for this team over the past two seasons, stringing together only one winning run in 2020 and 2021, capturing two straight victories each time.
Noonan learned under Philadelphia Union boss Jim Curtin, and he seems to be using similar tactics to the ones employed by the 2020 MLS Coach of the Year, having two forwards that can play in transition and catch opposing teams on the break.
Following a disastrous opening fixture, losing 5-0 to Austin FC, Cincy have done a better job at keeping their matches close, thanks partly to some fine goalkeeping.
The new stadium which this club moved into last year has not yielded different results, as Cincinnati have only won one regular-season encounter at TQL Stadium thus far, beating Toronto 2-0 in September of last year.
Since that victory, they have lost eight in a row at home, conceding a 98th-minute strike to Ola Kamara in a 1-0 defeat to DC United earlier this month.
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Both on and off the field, things are not going well for Inter Miami at the moment, with the Herons being outscored 7-1 over their previous two fixtures.
The frustration in South Beach seems to have trickled down to manager Phil Neville, who had some juicy quotes following their defeat last Saturday, saying Miami's quality players are not providing enough for this team.
While the former Manchester United and Everton defender did not single any one player out specifically, it is clear that he is not pleased with the performances that we have seen from this group as a whole after three matches.
Miami have made their share of fundamental errors, and that is why they are sitting in 12th, just a point above Charlotte and CF Montreal, who are in last place in the Eastern Conference.
At the moment, we are not seeing much imagination or positive play from them in the midfield, which explains in part why they are struggling to score goals.
Some players are still adjusting to new positions that could be difficult if not impossible to transition into, particularly at the back, where Neville has tried to convert 32-year-old Brek Shea into a defender without much success.
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Team News
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Brandon Vazquez is starting to become a solid centre forward, as the Cincinnati man notched a brace in their victory over The Lions last week, while Alec Kann was brilliant in goal, stopping five of the six shots that he faced, preserving the win.
John Nelson is out with a back issue, Beckham Sunderland could miss once again due to concussion protocol, while Gustavo Vallecilla and Ronald Matarrita will be questionable with leg injuries.
Junior Moreno collected his 100th career MLS cap in the regular season in their previous match, Haris Medunjanin made his 150th appearance in the league, Yuya Kubo earned his first-ever assist in Major League Soccer, while Luciano Acosta set up a goal for the 11th time in his Orange-and-Blue career, extending his club record in that category.
Gonzalo Higuain has received his share of criticism in the early portion of the year, as the former Juventus striker has yet to find the back of the net in 2022, although he is third in the league in terms of chance creation, while Leonardo Campana, on loan from Wolves, is the only player to have his name on the scoresheet for The Herons so far this season.
Brek Shea is out following his red card late in the opening half against the Black-and-Gold, and Ian Fray will not be available because of an ACL issue.
Several Miami players could be missing this weekend with undisclosed injuries, including Joevin Jones, Nick Marsman, Victor Ulloa, Robbie Robinson, Ryan Sailor, Bryce Duke and Kieran Gibbs.
Last Friday, the club signed home-grown player Noah Allen through to the 2024 season with an option for 2025 and 2026, while goalkeeper Clement Diop made his 50th career MLS appearance in the defeat to LA.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Kann; Blackett, Cameron, Hagglund; Harris, Moreno, Kubo, Barreal; Acosta; Badji, Vazquez
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Diop; Yedlin, Lowe, McVey, Quinteros; Azcona, Adams, Gregore, Taylor; Higuain, Campana
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-0 Inter Miami
There seems to be a lot of dysfunction in Miami right now, and while Cincy have been poor at home, they have shown more balance and discipline than The Herons this season, so we expect to see them come out on top with a narrow victory.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
