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FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round Qualifying
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Alwyns Lane Football Ground
Sutton United

Chertsey Town
1 - 3
Sutton

Mazzone (4')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Rush (8'), Coley (12'), Mason (90+7' og.)
Coverage of the FA Cup Fourth Round Qualifying clash between Chertsey Town and Sutton United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chertsey Town

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Last Game: Chertsey Town 3-2 Ashford United
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Sutton United

All competitions
Last Game: Hartlepool 4-3 Sutton
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in National League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 73.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Chertsey Town had a probability of 11.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-3 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.69%), while for a Chertsey Town win it was 2-1 (3.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.

Result
Chertsey TownDrawSutton United
11.27% (-0.017000000000001 -0.02)15.2% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)73.53% (0.031000000000006 0.03)
Both teams to score 58.38% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.11% (0.039999999999992 0.04)28.89% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.15% (0.048000000000002 0.05)49.84% (-0.052 -0.05)
Chertsey Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.6% (0.00099999999999767 0)37.4% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.82% (0.0019999999999989 0)74.18% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.25% (0.015000000000001 0.02)6.75% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
75.06% (0.042000000000002 0.04)24.94% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Chertsey Town 11.27%
    Sutton United 73.53%
    Draw 15.2%
Chertsey TownDrawSutton United
2-1 @ 3.29% (-0.004 -0)
1-0 @ 2.48% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.45% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 1.22% (-0.002 -0)
3-1 @ 1.08% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.74%
Total : 11.27%
1-1 @ 6.69% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.44% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 2.52% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.31% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 15.2%
0-2 @ 9.17% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.02% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 8.24% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-3 @ 8.11% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-1 @ 6.8% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 5.56% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
1-4 @ 5.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.99% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-5 @ 3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-5 @ 2.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-4 @ 2.69% (0.004 0)
2-5 @ 1.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-6 @ 1.35% (0.004 0)
1-6 @ 1.32% (0.004 0)
Other @ 4.44%
Total : 73.53%