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Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 11, 2022 at 5pm UK
Bolt Arena
Maribor

HJK Helsinki
1 - 0
Maribor

Hostikka (54')
Radulovic (10'), Browne (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Repas (14'), Mitrovic (21'), Antolin (84'), Karic (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between HJK Helsinki and Maribor, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

HJK Helsinki

Last Six:
Last Game: Oulu 1-1 HJK Helsinki
Sunday, August 7 at 5pm in Finnish Veikkausliiga

Maribor

Last Six:
    Last Game: Maribor 0-2 HJK Helsinki
    Thursday, August 4 at 7.15pm in Europa League

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Maribor had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

    The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.81%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Maribor win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.

    Result
    HJK HelsinkiDrawMaribor
    41.02% (-0.012 -0.01)23.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)35.57% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
    Both teams to score 63.51% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    61.88% (0.018000000000001 0.02)38.12% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    39.61% (0.018000000000001 0.02)60.39% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)
    HJK Helsinki Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    81% (0.0020000000000095 0)19% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    49.44% (0.0010000000000048 0)50.55% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
    Maribor Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    78.41% (0.015000000000001 0.02)21.58% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    45.32% (0.024000000000001 0.02)54.68% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
    Score Analysis
        HJK Helsinki 41.02%
        Maribor 35.57%
        Draw 23.4%
    HJK HelsinkiDrawMaribor
    2-1 @ 8.67% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
    1-0 @ 6.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
    2-0 @ 5.66% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
    3-1 @ 4.8% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
    3-2 @ 3.68% (0.0010000000000003 0)
    3-0 @ 3.13% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
    4-1 @ 1.99%
    4-2 @ 1.53% (0.0010000000000001 0)
    4-0 @ 1.3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
    Other @ 3.46%
    Total : 41.02%
    		1-1 @ 10.44%
    2-2 @ 6.65% (0.0010000000000003 0)
    0-0 @ 4.1% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
    3-3 @ 1.88% (0.002 0)
    Other @ 0.33%
    Total : 23.4%
    		1-2 @ 8.01% (0.0020000000000007 0)
    0-1 @ 6.29% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
    0-2 @ 4.82% (0.0010000000000003 0)
    1-3 @ 4.09% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    2-3 @ 3.4% (0.0019999999999998 0)
    0-3 @ 2.46% (0.00099999999999989 0)
    1-4 @ 1.57% (0.002 0)
    2-4 @ 1.3% (0.0010000000000001 0)
    0-4 @ 0.94% (0.001 0)
    Other @ 2.69%
    Total : 35.57%

    How you voted: HJK Helsinki vs Maribor

    HJK Helsinki
    83.1%
    Draw
    12.7%
    Maribor
    4.2%
    71
    Head to Head
    Aug 4, 2022 7.15pm
    Maribor
    0-2
    HJK Helsinki

    Mitrovic (53'), Repas (76')
    Browne (47'), Radulovic (64')
    Browne (37'), Vaananen (38'), Abubakari (60')
    rhs 2.0


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