Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Maribor had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.81%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Maribor win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.