Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitatea Craiova win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Maribor had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitatea Craiova win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Maribor win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universitatea Craiova would win this match.