Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Botev Plovdiv had a probability of 24.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.75%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Botev Plovdiv win was 1-0 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.