Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Istanbul Basaksehir had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Istanbul Basaksehir win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.