To decide their UEFA Nations League fate for the 2022-23 season, international minnows Estonia and Cyprus meet in Tallinn on Thursday.
The competition's first two-legged 'play-outs' will select which nation will stay in League C and which is consigned to Europe's bottom tier.
Match preview
© Reuters
Because League C constitutes four groups while League D is made up of only two, the two teams to be relegated are set to be determined over the course of the next week.
As the Faroe Islands and Gibraltar have already been promoted from League D, now Cyprus - the second-ranked team of those taking part - will do battle with the third team of the quartet, Estonia.
World-ranked 106, the Estonians most recently completed their World Cup qualification campaign second-bottom of Group E, with a total of just four points from eight matches - marginally enough to consign fellow also-rans Belarus to last place.
The Blueshirts accrued all of their points last autumn - clinging on for a draw with Wales in Cardiff before beating Belarus 2-0 back on home soil - but were then comfortably dispatched by both Belgium and Czech Republic in their final two matches.
If anything, their form in the most recent Nations League was somewhat worse, and only three points taken from six fixtures saw Karel Voolaid's team finish adrift at the bottom of League C Group 2; thereby forcing them into this two-legged tie for survival.
Swiss coach Thomas Haberli has taken the helm since that time, and the former Basel assistant will now aim to retain Estonia's third-tier status, rather than joining nations such as Andorra and San Marino down in League D.
© Reuters
Ranked just one place above their Baltic counterparts in FIFA's global pecking order, Cyprus will enjoy home advantage in next week's second leg, but first must travel to Tallinn's A. Le Coq Arena in search of their first victory for nearly a year.
Since defying the odds to beat Slovenia back in March 2021, eight defeats and a draw have followed, so the Mediterranean minnows have certainly lost that winning feeling.
Indeed, a spell of six matches leading up to October's 2-2 draw with Malta saw Nikos Kostenoglou's side concede 15 times without scoring even once, and their most recent run-outs were a 6-0 thrashing by Russia and a 2-1 defeat against Slovenia to conclude World Cup qualifying.
Only avoiding last place in Qualification Group H by virtue of a slightly less awful goal difference than Malta, the Cypriots actually did finish rock-bottom of League C Group 1 in the most recent Nations League, under former manager Johan Walem.
The only win of that campaign saw Cyprus turn over 10-man Luxembourg in November 2020, and they must now attempt to make amends by salvaging their League C status.
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Thomas Haberli has called up a 26-man squad for the coming days' action, which will decide Estonia's Nations League fate.
Experience continues to lead the way for Thursday's hosts, with veteran Konstantin Vassiljev still the leading scorer in the squad on 25 goals from 137 international caps, and the 37-year-old is expected to start.
Captained by 36-year-old ex-Liverpool defender Ragnar Klavan, the Blueshirts have omitted 88-cap defender Taijo Teniste (34), and at the other end of the age spectrum, teenage goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein - currently on loan at Reading from Arsenal - also drops out.
IFK Goteborg striker Erik Sorga is a more youthful option up front, but may have to make do with a place on the bench if Sergei Zenjov is chosen to partner Rauno Sappinen.
Cyprus have named a 24-player selection, which features leading active scorer Pieros Sotiriou, who has 11 international strikes to his name so far.
A recent regular with Serie A's bottom side Salernitana, midfielder Grigoris Kastanos is also expected to be an influential figure for the away side.
Meanwhile, St Mirren's Alex Gogic - currently on loan at the Scottish Premiership club from Hibernian - has been left out, so will not be adding to his seven senior caps this month.
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Igonen; Paskotsi, Tamm, Mets; Puri, Kreida, Vassiljev, Poom, Sappinen; Zenjov, Anier
Cyprus possible starting lineup:
Dimitriou; Sotiriou, Laifis, Karo; Psaltis, Kastanos, Artymatas, Iouannou; Tzionis, Sotiriou, Papoulis
We say: Estonia 1-1 Cyprus
Neither nation is accustomed to taking the initiative, given their lowly status and sparse successes, so a tentative first leg may end all-square.
Both teams are prone to capitulate under pressure though, so the likeliest outcome may be a score draw - leaving the tie finely balanced before next week's decider.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for Cyprus had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Cyprus win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
