Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 42.91%. A win for FC Volendam had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.36%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest FC Volendam win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Volendam would win this match.