Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stromsgodset win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for Sarpsborg 08 had a probability of 31% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stromsgodset win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Sarpsborg 08 win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Stromsgodset in this match.