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EFL Cup

Aston Villa logo
EFL Cup | Fourth Round
Oct 1, 2020 at 7pm UK
Villa Park
Stoke logo

Aston Villa
0 - 1
Stoke


Davis (59'), Ramsey (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Vokes (26')

The Match

Match Report

Sam Vokes struck in the first half to send Stoke through at Villa Park

Team News

Tom Heaton and Wesley continue to recover from their long-term knee injuries.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's EFL Cup fourth round tie between Aston Villa and Stoke City, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Stoke City in this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawStoke City
34.75%26.35%38.9%
Both teams to score 52.91%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.21%51.78%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.45%73.55%
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.54%28.46%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.78%64.22%
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.96%26.04%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.92%61.08%
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 34.75%
    Stoke City 38.9%
    Draw 26.35%
Aston VillaDrawStoke City
1-0 @ 9.31%
2-1 @ 7.87%
2-0 @ 5.85%
3-1 @ 3.3%
3-0 @ 2.45%
3-2 @ 2.22%
4-1 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 34.75%
1-1 @ 12.53%
0-0 @ 7.41%
2-2 @ 5.3%
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.35%
0-1 @ 9.97%
1-2 @ 8.43%
0-2 @ 6.71%
1-3 @ 3.78%
0-3 @ 3.01%
2-3 @ 2.38%
1-4 @ 1.27%
0-4 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 38.9%