Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 56.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Helmond Sport win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.