Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-0 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.