Djurgardens IF welcome struggling Orebro to the Tele2 Arena on Monday, as they seek to take another step towards regaining the Allsvenskan title they lost last year.
While the Stockholm club stuttered just before the summer break, their visitors arrive on the back of four straight defeats and will be a long shot to leave with maximum points.
Match preview
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Amongst the favourites for the title, 2019 champions Djurgarden have seen their fine start to the current season undermined by a sluggish run of form just before the break and in recent friendlies.
The Blaranderna picked up only two points from their last two league outings to sit second in the early standings - still just three points behind leaders Malmo, with a game in hand.
In a pair of warm-up games before the action recommences, a home defeat to Kalmar was followed by a 2-2 draw with Degerfors, so joint coaches Kim Bergstrand and Thomas Lagerlof will want to quickly kick-start their campaign when the Allsvenskan returns.
Bergstrand has clung onto his position despite some controversial comments bringing his tenure into serious question in the spring, and will hope that a team containing signings including on-loan goalkeeper Aleksandr Vasyutin, Finland midfielder Rasmus Schuller and former Swansea forward Joel Asoro can stay in the hunt for honours heading into the autumn.
A relatively radical pre-season overhaul - with several regulars also heading for the exit - may have thrown up some difficulties for Djurgarden, but they will certainly prove a tough task to overcome for modest Orebro on Monday.
Recent clashes between the two clubs have resulted in a 14-2 aggregate score for the Stockholm side, who have won four of their five encounters since 2019.
Orebro had made an underwhelming start to the season before its recent interval, as they sit in the relegation zone, adrift of their seventh-placed finish in the 2020 campaign.
With only five goals in their opening eight games - plus conceding a league-high 16 at the other end - it is clear that untested manager Vitor Gazimba has his work cut out to emulate last year's lofty finish.
After moving to Norway to take up a role as academy manager at Stromsgodset in 2014, the Portuguese coach later joined OSK as assistant manager. Now promoted to the top job, Gazimba has brought in players such as ex-Olympiacos goalkeeper Bobby Allain and former Djurgarden midfielder Kevin Walker - who featured on the Swedish version of 'Pop Idol' in 2013 - but it remains to be seen what impact they will have.
On-loan striker Deniz Hummet has divided opinion due to his lack of penalty box potency, but scored in Orebro's final fixture before the month-long hiatus - a 2-1 loss to Malmo - and will hope to hit the ground running again in the Swedish capital this week.
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Team News
Djurgarden have endured difficulties in the goalkeeping department in recent times, and that could continue this term, as on-loan Zenit St Petersburg goalkeeper Aleksandr Vasyutin is set to miss most of the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Either Tommi Vaiho or young Jacob Zetterstrom will provide cover: the latter started in the last game before the break and in both recent friendlies, so finds himself in pole position.
Defender Axel Wallenborg is yet to return from his shoulder injury, though is due back in the coming days, so the back four could be unchanged from the goalless draw against IFK Gothenburg.
Up front, Karl Holmberg should lead the line, with support from Rasmus Schuller - recently returned from the Euros, where he represented debutants Finland.
Orebro, meanwhile, have no major injury concerns to manage, so coach Vitor Gazimba will be likely to field a 4-4-2 formation, with Erik Bjorndahl - who only managed three goals in 28 games last season - joining Deniz Hummet up front.
Winger Jake Larsson will seek to reignite his career during the second part of this campaign, having seen interest from Serie A clubs fade due to his waning form in recent months.
Djurgardens IF possible starting lineup:
Zetterstrom; Kack, Ekdal, Lofgren, Witry; Findell, Eriksson, Schuller; Barkroth, Holmberg, Chilufya
Orebro possible starting lineup:
Allain; Ali, Almeback, Skovgaard, Hjertstrand; Seger, Collander, Martensson, Larsson; Hummet, Bjorndahl
We say: Djurgardens IF 3-1 Orebro
Djurgarden have been in good goalscoring form in mid-season friendlies and have a range of options to choose from in the final third, so can give their pursuit of a second title in three years a boost by winning on Monday.
Even a month on the training ground may not prove enough to resolve Orebro's defensive deficiencies, with their campaign perhaps more likely to recover when they hit some more winnable fixtures in the coming weeks.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Djurgardens IF win with a probability of 63.16%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Orebro had a probability of 16.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Djurgardens IF win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Orebro win it was 0-1 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Djurgardens IF would win this match.
