Sassuolo travel to face bottom side Crotone at Stadio Ezio Scida on Sunday, with the two teams near the foot of the Serie A form table following miserable results since the turn of the year.
The visitors are now winless in five straight games, while their hosts seek to end a three-match losing streak and stay in touch with their fellow relegation battlers.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a disappointing home loss to Spezia last week, Sassuolo have picked up just two points from their last five outings, thanks only to draws against serial strugglers Cagliari and Parma.
Even though they led against the Ligurian side last time out - due to Francesco Caputo's second strike in three games, following a dry spell caused by lingering thigh problems - the Neroverdi conceded two avoidable goals, to the obvious frustration of their manager Roberto De Zerbi.
The highly-rated head coach will, however, have been overjoyed to see much-missed star man Domenico Berardi return to the bench after an injury layoff, and the Azzurri forward should now be ready to start against Crotone. Registering seven goals and four assists so far, there is no doubt that the potency of Sassuolo's attack suffers when he is absent.
Having won nearly half of their matches in the 2020-21 campaign with Berardi in the starting XI (seven out of 15), without him they have won only 17% - thereby proving their over-reliance on his undoubted talents.
Critics have also suggested that De Zerbi's obsession with possession-based principles has undermined his team in recent weeks - with a tally of only 23 open-play crosses to date, Sassuolo are determined to pass their way to success. That style of play has earned plaudits and elevated the overachievers to unexpected heights in the past though.
Still eighth in the table and within touching distance of a European place for next season, the Neroverdi will tackle Sunday's opponents with their characteristically patient approach and must surely take a golden opportunity to regain their clinical edge against the league's leakiest defence.
© Reuters
The fourth and final goal conceded in their expected drubbing at the hands of leaders Milan last week was the 50th let in by Crotone this term - at a rate of nearly two-and-a-half per game.
Though the Squali are still last in the standings, with just 12 points gleaned from 21 rounds, they remain only four points away from the right side of the dotted line - primarily due to the deficiencies of others.
Giovanni Stroppa's team have now suffered three consecutive defeats – to Milan, Genoa and Fiorentina – with only one goal scored and nine conceded during that period, as a result of a series of individual errors and some systemic failings which can only be pinned on their coach.
Given their relative lack of resources, few will be surprised at the Calabrian club's travails to date, but Stroppa must be particularly dispirited by the fact that Crotone remain the only team in Serie A that have failed to gain points after going behind this season.
While revealing a lack of confidence - and perhaps even character - in adversity, it naturally follows that going a goal down on Sunday would likely prove fatal to any hopes of a positive result.
The previous Serie A fixture between these two teams saw Sassuolo win 4-1 at the Mapei Stadium in October, with Caputo bagging a brace for the Neroverdi. It will take a dramatic turnaround in fortunes for the hosts to prevail on this occasion though, with Crotone desperately short of both form and inspiration.
Crotone Serie A form: LLWLLL
Sassuolo Serie A form: WLDLDL
Team News
© Reuters
Much-admired Sassuolo defender Gian Marco Ferrari will miss out against former club Crotone this week due to suspension, so Vlad Chiriches is set to step into his centre-back spot. French midfielder Maxime Lopez is also back from a ban but may find himself on the bench.
Winger Jeremie Boga's stop-start campaign continues in frustrating fashion, as the former Chelsea man will be out for at least another week with a thigh problem, having been substituted before the break against Spezia. Fortunately for Roberto De Zerbi, fit-again Domenico Berardi can take Boga's place in the side, alongside Hamed Traore and Filip Djuricic in support of lone striker Francesco Caputo.
Home boss Giovanni Stroppa is expected to confirm recent signing Samuel Di Carmine's spot up front in place of Simy, with the lively Adam Ounas set to continue as his partner. Top scorer Junior Messias returns to the lineup, so Milos Vulic may miss out in midfield.
Giuseppe Cuomo, Luca Cigarini and Salvatore Molina are all unavailable for Crotone, while wing-back Arkadiusz Reca was injured in the warm-up before the Milan game and is a major doubt for Sunday.
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Djidji, Marrone, Luperto; Rispoli, Messias, Benali, Zanellato, Pereira; Ounas, Di Carmine
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Muldur, Marlon, Chiriches, Rogerio; Locatelli, Obiang; Berardi, Djuricic, Traore; Caputo
We say: Crotone 1-3 Sassuolo
An ideal opportunity for Domenico Berardi to bed back into the Sassuolo lineup presents itself at Stadio Ezio Scida, and even at less than his peak powers, the Italy international's combinations with Ciccio Caputo in attack should prove a class apart from the hosts' dodgy defence.
It is hard to see where Crotone - who face champions Juventus next - will pick up their next points from, as their propensity for calamitous errors at the back shows no sign of improvement.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 43.01%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 33.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.08%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Crotone win was 2-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sassuolo in this match.
