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Coppa Italia | First Round
Aug 6, 2022 at 5pm UK
Stadio Alberto Picco

Spezia
5 - 1
Como

N'Zola (43', 76' pen.), Verde (60' pen.), Strelec (71'), Maldini (89')
Bastoni (62')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Blanco (55')
Cagnano (37'), Blanco (63')
Coverage of the Coppa Italia First Round clash between Spezia and Como.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

Last Six:
    Last Game: Spezia 0-3 Napoli
    Sunday, May 22 at 11.30am in Serie A

    Como

    Last Six:
      Last Game: Como 1-2 Cremonese
      Friday, May 6 at 7.30pm in Serie B

      Data Analysis

      Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 41.48%. A win for Como had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

      The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Como win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.

      Result
      SpeziaDrawComo
      41.48% (-0.422 -0.42)25.31% (0.032 0.03)33.22% (0.395 0.4)
      Both teams to score 56.04% (0.029999999999994 0.03)
      Goals
      Over 2.5Under 2.5
      52.4% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)47.6% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
      Over 3.5Under 3.5
      30.2% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)69.8% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
      Spezia Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      77.17% (-0.21299999999999 -0.21)22.83% (0.216 0.22)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      43.45% (-0.316 -0.32)56.55% (0.319 0.32)
      Como Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      72.63% (0.241 0.24)27.38% (-0.238 -0.24)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      37.16% (0.308 0.31)62.84% (-0.305 -0.31)
      Score Analysis
          Spezia 41.48%
          Como 33.22%
          Draw 25.31%
      SpeziaDrawComo
      1-0 @ 9.23% (-0.051 -0.05)
      2-1 @ 8.83% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
      2-0 @ 6.82% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
      3-1 @ 4.35% (-0.051 -0.05)
      3-0 @ 3.36% (-0.062 -0.06)
      3-2 @ 2.82% (-0.014 -0.01)
      4-1 @ 1.61% (-0.029 -0.03)
      4-0 @ 1.24% (-0.031 -0.03)
      4-2 @ 1.04% (-0.012 -0.01)
      Other @ 2.19%
      Total : 41.48%
      		1-1 @ 11.96% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
      0-0 @ 6.25% (0.0049999999999999 0)
      2-2 @ 5.72% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
      3-3 @ 1.22% (0.0030000000000001 0)
      Other @ 0.16%
      Total : 25.31%
      		0-1 @ 8.1% (0.061 0.06)
      1-2 @ 7.75% (0.06 0.06)
      0-2 @ 5.25% (0.074 0.07)
      1-3 @ 3.35% (0.048 0.05)
      2-3 @ 2.47% (0.02 0.02)
      0-3 @ 2.27% (0.047 0.05)
      1-4 @ 1.08% (0.022 0.02)
      Other @ 2.96%
      Total : 33.22%