Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metropolitanos win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metropolitanos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.31%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.