Internacional have enjoyed a solid continental run and will be looking to beat Guairena to a place in the knockout stages. The Brazilian side head into Tuesday as favourites as they take on a floundering 9 de Octubre side whose last win away from home came back in November. Looking at the contrasting form between the sides and the gulf in quality in their squads, we are tipping Internacional to claim all three points in this one.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 56.68%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for 9 de Octubre had a probability of 17.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a 9 de Octubre win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Internacional would win this match.