Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 5, 2025 at 2am UK
Estadio Huancayo

ADT
1 - 1
Cienciano

Cedron (67', 67')
Cedron (49'), Cedron (49'), Narvaez (56'), Narvaez (56')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Choi (90+2' og., 90+2' og.)
Gonzalez (34'), Gonzalez (34'), Romagnoli (41'), Romagnoli (41'), Estrada (78'), Estrada (78'), Galeano (90+4'), Galeano (90+4')
ADT win 5-4 on penalties
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between ADT and Cienciano.

Form, Standings, Stats

ADT

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Last Game: Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 ADT (4-3 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Cienciano

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Last Game: Universitario 2-0 Cienciano
Friday, March 10 at 2am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a ADT win with a probability of 67.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Cienciano had a probability of 12.96%.

The most likely scoreline for an ADT win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.27%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for a Cienciano win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.

Result
ADTDrawCienciano
67.89% (0.892 0.89)19.15% (-0.386 -0.39)12.96% (-0.504 -0.5)
Both teams to score 48.82% (-0.14700000000001 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.31% (0.563 0.56)43.69% (-0.561 -0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.92% (0.548 0.55)66.08% (-0.54599999999999 -0.55)
ADT Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.14% (0.411 0.41)11.86% (-0.408 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.86% (0.873 0.87)37.14% (-0.869 -0.87)
Cienciano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.38% (-0.426 -0.43)44.62% (0.427 0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.37% (-0.345 -0.35)80.63% (0.348 0.35)
Score Analysis
    ADT 67.87%
    Cienciano 12.96%
    Draw 19.15%
ADTDrawCienciano
2-0 @ 12.02% (0.09 0.09)
1-0 @ 11.27% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 9.71% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-0 @ 8.55% (0.202 0.2)
3-1 @ 6.9% (0.083 0.08)
4-0 @ 4.56% (0.179 0.18)
4-1 @ 3.68% (0.102 0.1)
3-2 @ 2.78% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 1.94% (0.106 0.11)
5-1 @ 1.57% (0.067 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.48% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 67.87%
1-1 @ 9.1% (-0.186 -0.19)
0-0 @ 5.29% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.92% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 19.15%
0-1 @ 4.27% (-0.158 -0.16)
1-2 @ 3.67% (-0.119 -0.12)
0-2 @ 1.72% (-0.085 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.05% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 0.99% (-0.045 -0.04)
Other @ 1.26%
Total : 12.96%