Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sport Recife win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Athletic Club had a probability of 26.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sport Recife win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Athletic Club win was 0-1 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.