Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponte Preta win with a probability of 42.18%. A draw had a probability of 30.14% and a win for Guarany de Bage had a probability of 27.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponte Preta win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.08%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.28%) , while for a Guarany de Bage win it was 0-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood.