Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 88.85%. A draw had a probability of 8.9% and a win for Botafogo-PB had a probability of 2.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (16.38%) and 1-0 (12.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (4.24%), while for a Botafogo-PB win it was 0-1 (1.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.