Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nova Iguacu win with a probability of 44.13%. A draw had a probability of 30.05% and a win for Castanhal had a probability of 25.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nova Iguacu win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.74%) and 1-2 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%) , while for a Castanhal win it was 1-0 (10.37%).