Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nova Iguacu win with a probability of 42.73%. A win for Lagarto had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nova Iguacu win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Lagarto win was 0-1 (9.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.