Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Xerez win with a probability of 48.35%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Ceuta had a probability of 23.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Xerez win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Ceuta win it was 0-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.