CONCACAF Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 5, 2026 8.00pm

Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Guadeloupe

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Bermuda 1 - 2 Guadeloupe

Saint Lucia

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last game
Sep 26, 2026 1.00am
Barbados 2 - 0 St Lucia

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 69.24%. A draw has a probability of 17% and a win for Saint Lucia has a probability of 13.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.87%) and 3-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.99%) , while for a Saint Lucia win it is 0-1 (4.15%).

Result

Guadeloupe 69.24% ▲ (+0.13)
Draw 17% ▼ (-0.06)
Saint Lucia 13.8% ▼ (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.12% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.31% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 18.69% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 60.41% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 2.5 39.59% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 3.5 39% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 3.5 61% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 4.5 27.59% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 4.5 72.41% ▼ (-0.11)

First Half Winner

Guadeloupe 57.79%
Draw 31.88%
Saint Lucia 10.33%

Team To Score First

Guadeloupe 74.22% ▲ (+0.02)
No Goal 4.73% ▼ (-0.01)
Saint Lucia 21.05%

Corners

Over 8 50.91%
Equal 8 11.35%
Under 8 37.74%
Over 9 39.95%
Equal 9 10.97%
Under 9 49.09%
Over 10.5 30.16%
Under 10.5 69.84%

Guadeloupe Goals

Over 1.5 64.83% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 1.5 35.17% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 2.5 40.71% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 59.29% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 3.5 21.6% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 3.5 78.4% ▼ (-0.11)

Saint Lucia Goals

Over 0.5 44.07% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 0.5 55.93% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 16.78% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 83.22% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 4.85% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 95.15% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 1.35%
Under 3.5 98.65%

Score analysis

Guadeloupe 69.25%
Draw 17%
Saint Lucia 13.81%
Guadeloupe
2-0 @ 10.89% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 9.87% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 8.95% ▲ (+0.03)
2-1 @ 8.51% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.64% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.84%
Other @ 21.55% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 69.25%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.99% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 4.73% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 3.55% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.05%
Total : 17%
Saint Lucia
0-1 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 3.53% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 2.01%
1-3 @ 1.24%
2-3 @ 1.17%
Other @ 1.3%
Total : 13.81%

Head to Head

CONCACAF Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 2, 2026 8.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Caniggia Elva 18' goal
  • Arkell Jude-Boyd 35' goal
  • Donavan Phillip 57' goal
  • Shevon Byron 90' yellowcard
  • Caniggia Elva 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Lester Joseph 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Meddy Cysique 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Mickaël Alphonse 54'
CONCACAF Nations League
Oct 15, 2023 8.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Valette
  • Ange-Freddy Plumain 52' goal
  • Ange-Freddy Plumain 71' goal
  • Andreaw Gravillon 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Josh Solomon-Davies 46'
CONCACAF Nations League
Oct 13, 2023 1.00am
2
1
HT : 2 2
FT
  • Melvin Doxilly 25' yellowcard
  • Melvin Doxilly 25' yellowcard
  • Caniggia Elva 45' goal
  • Caniggia Elva 45' goal
  • Javick Macfarlane 58' goal
  • Javick Macfarlane 58' goal
  • Lester Joseph 72' yellowcard
  • Lester Joseph 72' yellowcard
  • goal Jerome Roussillon 29'
  • goal Jerome Roussillon 29'
  • redcard Quentin Annette 90'+1'
  • redcard Quentin Annette 90'+1'