Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Salvador win with a probability of 51.39%. A win for Montserrat had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Salvador win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Montserrat win was 0-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for El Salvador in this match.