Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.