It's a new season in Major League Soccer and with it comes new hope for the 2020 champions, the Columbus Crew, who will welcome the Vancouver Whitecaps to Lower.com Field on Saturday.
Columbus missed the playoffs in 2021, finishing a point back of the New York Red Bulls in the Eastern Conference, while the Whitecaps were one of the hottest teams in the second half of last year, finishing sixth in the west, but losing 3-1 to Sporting Kansas City in the opening round of the postseason.
Match preview
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Last year was a disappointing one for Caleb Porter and his Crew, who were hit hard with injuries, leaving a lot of weight on the shoulders of the 2020 MLS Cup MVP Lucas Zelarayan.
They seem to be healthier and feeling a lot better about themselves heading into this regular season, which is an encouraging sign, particularly to their back end, who conceded 45 goals a season ago after only allowing 21 in their shortened 2020 campaign.
One of the criticisms for this team in 2021 was a lack of dynamic play in the midfield, often appearing predictable and easy to defend.
Even though the makeup of this squad will not be all that different from how they looked at the start of last year, it will probably feel different for Porter, knowing how many key contributors missed time a season ago.
The two-time MLS Cup-winning manager believes that they have a good mix of continuity and youngsters who will return to form in 2022, and there is no question that they have their share of players with big-game experience.
If history repeats itself, we should see them in the playoffs this time out, as they have put together some excellent bounce-back campaigns in previous seasons, finishing third in the 2020 Eastern Conference standings after ending 2019 in 10th.
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A new face at the helm of the Vancouver Whitecaps seemed to instil newfound confidence in this group a year ago after a tough first half to the campaign.
While we are used to seeing short term improvements when a new coach is calling the shots, it will be up to Vanni Sartini to maintain that same belief system within his side this go-round.
They were one of the best teams down the stretch of last season and were aided by some outstanding goalkeeping from Maxime Crepeau, who stole his share of games for them in between the posts.
Vancouver will not be able to rely on the Canadian international to rescue them in 2022, having traded him to Los Angeles FC, so it will be interesting to see if their Italian coach remains as aggressive as he was when taking over for Marc Dos Santos.
There is a new level that they are trying to reach this time around, and it seems as though they could be as potent and dangerous as they were in the second half of last season, as their 2021 newcomers developed instant chemistry and helped quickly reverse the Caps fortunes.
It appears as though there is a solid structure in place within this group, who know what is expected of them, and they have shown that they are capable of adapting to their unpredictable manager, who likes to employ numerous formations.
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Team News
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Yaw Yeboah was one of the main signings for Columbus in the offseason, with the Ghanaian coming from Poland, as he hopes to regain the form that made him such a valuable part of the famed Right to Dream Academy in 2014 before joining Manchester City.
Milos Degenek should give Porter a variety of options as he can play centre-back, fullback, or in a defensive midfield role, Steven Moreira has some solid Ligue 1 experience, while Milton Valenzuela and Harrison Afful will not return, signing instead with FC Lugano and Charlotte FC, respectively.
Gyasi Zardes has been called-up regularly for the US national team in their World Cup qualifying campaign and scored nine times for the Crew in 2021, while Kevin Molino is still recovering from a long-term injury.
With Crepeau gone, the Caps will turn to Thomas Hasal, who signed a contract extension earlier this week, while Tristan Blackmon is likely to slot into the back three as a right-sided central defender, probably alongside Florian Jungwirth and Ranko Veselinovic.
Sebastian Berhalter was traded to Vancouver from Columbus for allocation money, with Janio Bikel and Derek Cornelius being loaned to Vicenza and Panetolikos, respectively.
Brian White played a huge part in the Whitecaps' transformation last year, as the American came in mid-season and went on to lead the team in goals with 12, often linking up brilliantly with Ryan Gauld, and taking the pressure off Cristian Dajome, who scored 11 times himself.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Santos, Degenek, Mensah, Moreira; Nagbe, Artur; Etienne, Zelarayan, Yeboah; Zardes
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Jungwirth, Veselinovic, Blackmon; Dajome, Brown, Alexandre, Teibert; Gauld; White, Caicedo
We say: Columbus Crew 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
This season, we expect to see Columbus back in form with their key components intact and a robust midfield presence that can make them a dangerous team to face.
The Caps may not have Crepeau to bail them out, but their speed and transition game should give the Crew a few headaches, while their creativity will likely enable this strong attacking squad more than a few openings in the final third.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 63.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 15.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
