Paraguayan side Club Libertad travel to Colombian outfit Atletico Nacional for the second leg of their third qualifying round tie of the Copa Libertadores at 21:30 local time on Wednesday evening.
The visitors take a slender 1-0 advantage to the Estadio Atanasio Girardot and will be looking to progress to the group stages for the fifth successive season.
Match preview
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Atletico Nacional were eliminated at this stage of the Copa Libertadores qualifiers in 2018-19 by Libertad, suffering a 1-0 defeat in the first leg before winning the second leg by the same scoreline, only to then lose on penalties.
The chances of this scenario repeating itself this year remains a possibility, after Nacional lost 1-0 to Libertad once again last week, thanks to a 78th-minute strike from defender Cristian Baez.
Despite this result, Nacional boss Alexandre Guimaraes, who became the club's manager in December 2020, is still hopeful of progressing to the group stages for the first time in four years.
El Verde have won the Copa Libertadores twice before, winning in 1989 and more recently in 2016, beating Ecuadorian side Independiente del Valle 2-1 in the final.
Guimaraes is hoping he can guide Nacional towards another final, but he knows that his side must win on Wednesday if they are to keep their dreams alive.
After winning the first leg last week, Libertad have since claimed their seventh league victory of the campaign, with a 2-1 home win against Guairena on Sunday.
Strikes from Hector Villalba and Julio Enciso gave Libertad a two-goal lead heading into half time, and despite conceding a second-half goal from Facundo Parra, Daniel Garnero's side were able to hold on for all three points.
That result keeps the 20-time Paraguayan Primera Division champions at the summit, one point clear of their nearest rivals Club Nacional.
Libertad have remarkably reached the Copa Libertadores group stages in 17 of the last 19 years and securing at least a draw on Wednesday would continue this run.
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Team News
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Libertad boss Garnero lined up with a 4-4-2 formation in the first leg and could use the same system again on Tuesday evening.
Thirty-seven-year-old former Benfica forward Oscar Cardozo will be hoping to start up front, however he is expected to remain on the bench with Carlos Ferreira and Adrian Emmanuel Martinez set to lead the line.
For Atletico Nacional, Yerson Candelo could keep his place in the starting lineup at right-back ahead of Jonathan Marulanda, while Vladimir Hernandez will be hoping to play in midfield ahead of either Michael Chacon or Sebastian Gomez Londono.
Jonathan Alvez started as the lone striker in the first leg but he could be replaced in the side by Jefferson Duque, who has seven goals so far this campaign.
Atletico Nacional possible starting lineup:
Quintana; Candelo, Mosquera, Oliveira, Banguero; Chacon, Londono; Perlaza, Barrera, Andrade; Duque
Club Libertad possible starting lineup:
Silva; Piris, Baez, Barboza, Espinoza; Franco, R. Martinez, Bocanegra, Bogarin; Ferreira, A. Martinez
We say: Atletico Nacional 0-1 Club Libertad
There was not much to separate Atletico Nacional and Club Libertad in the first leg, and a cagey contest could be on the cards once again for the second leg.
The hosts know that they need to score to have any chance of winning the tie, however we feel that the visitors just have enough to secure another narrow victory and progress to the group stages of the Copa Libertadores.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 30.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Nacional would win this match.
