Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chengdu Qianbao win with a probability of 36%. A win for Qingdao Jonoon had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chengdu Qianbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.59%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Qingdao Jonoon win was 1-0 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.