China will face Oman on Thursday, with the hosts in desperate need of a victory to keep their World Cup 2022 qualification hopes alive after collecting just three points from their opening four group games.
Meanwhile, Oman are three points better off than their opponents, and as a result, they currently reside in the playoff place.
Match preview
© Reuters
China's hopes of qualifying for their second World Cup finals are fading, but a win on Thursday could rekindle their qualification hopes, as it would move them level on points with Oman.
After losing their first two games of the group, China bounced back with a victory over Vietnam at the start on the last international period.
However, they followed that win with a 3-2 loss away to Saudi Arabia, with goals from Luo Guofo and Wu Xi not enough to prevent China from falling to defeat.
The defence has been an issue for China, demonstrated by the nine goals they have shipped in their four group games.
Although, Li Tie will be encouraged by his side's goalscoring form, having scored five goals in their last two international games.
Oman have never qualified for a World Cup, but they currently occupy the playoff place and are only three points adrift of the top two automatic qualification spots.
The last international period started with a disappointing 3-1 away defeat to Australia, but they responded with a 3-1 victory of their own when they hosted Vietnam.
Oman fell a goal behind against Vietnam, but goals from Issam Al-Sabhi, Mohsin Al-Khaldi and Salah Al-Yahyaei helped them clinch all three points.
Branko Ivankovic will be pleased with his side's three goals against Vietnam, having only scored two goals in their three group games prior to that fixture.
Having conceded in each of their last three games, Oman will be looking for the type of defensive performance that helped them to a 1-0 victory over Japan in their group opener.
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Team News
Wu Lei has scored two goals in the third round of qualifying, and the Espanyol man will be crucial to China's efforts on Thursday.
After coming on at half time to score against Saudi Arabia, Guofu could be in line for a starting place against Oman.
Meanwhile, Elkeson was dropped to the bench for the contest with Saudi Arabia, but he could come back into the starting lineup on Thursday.
Al-Yahyaei will start for Oman, and the 23-year-old will be aiming to score in consecutive international games.
After coming into the starting lineup for the most recent game, Al-Khaldi is likely to keep his place after scoring against Vietnam.
China possible starting lineup:
Yan; L. Zhang, Zhu, Browning, Wang; X. Wu, X. Zhang, Elkeson; Guofu, Lei, Y. Zhang
Oman possible starting lineup:
Al-Rushaidi; Gheilani, Al-Khamisi, Al-Maslami, Al-Busaidi; Al-Saadi, Al-Khaldi, Al-Aghbari, Al-Yahyaei; Al-Alawi, Al-Hajri
We say: China 2-2 Oman
China have struggled for points so far and will be looking for their second victory of the group, but we think they will have to settle for a draw against an Oman side who have fared well so far in qualification.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a China win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Oman had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a China win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.33%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Oman win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
