Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between China and Saudi Arabia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Saudi Arabia will qualify for this year's World Cup if they beat China in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.

The Middle Eastern nation are currently top of Group B in the Asian pool, four points ahead of third-place Australia. China are already eliminated.

Match preview

Saudi Arabia's Feras Al Brikan celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 27, 2022 © Reuters

Saudi Arabia have competed in five previous World Cups, including the last edition in Russia in 2018 when they were knocked out in the group stage.

They had the chance to qualify for Qatar last month, but lost 2-0 against second-place Japan – their first defeat in eight group matches.

If Herve Renard's side cannot get the job done in this fixture, their final group game against Australia next week will take on a huge level of prominence. A draw on Thursday would be enough if Australia fail to beat Japan.

Ex-Lille boss Renard led Morocco to the 2018 World Cup and will be keen to add another appearance at the tournament to his CV.

Saudi Arabia, who have kept five clean sheets in their eight group games, won 3-2 against China in the reverse fixture earlier in the qualifying campaign as Sami Al Naji scored his first two international goals.

China coach Xiaopeng Li on January 27, 2022 © Reuters

China have picked up just one win from their eight qualifying games and have conceded an average of two goals per match.

Former Chinese international Li Xiaopeng succeeded Tie Li three months ago but lost his first two matches in charge during the international break earlier in the year.

That included a worrying 3-1 defeat to bottom of the table Vietnam, who had lost all of their group matches up until that point.

With qualification out of the equation, Li may use this fixture and China's final group match against Oman next week to experiment ahead of the EAFF E-1 Football Championship in July.

Due to this game being held in the UAE because of Chinese quarantine restrictions, China will have further to travel than Saudi Arabia despite being the designated home side.

China World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Saudi Arabia World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Saudi Arabia form (all competitions):

Team News

Saudi Arabia coach Herve Renard on January 27, 2022 © Reuters

China winger Wu Lei, who has scored half of his country's eight goals in Group B, declined a call up this month to boost his playing prospects at Espanyol.

The nation's only other player based in a European league, Grasshopper Zurich defender Li Lei, has pulled out of the squad after suffering a thigh injury in training last week.

Winger Wei Shihao and midfielder Chi Zhongguo are also absent due to injury.

Saudi Arabia are missing first choice right-back Sultan Al-Ghanam, while centre-back Ali Al-Bulaihi is out injured.

Saleh Al-Shehri, who has scored three goals in Group B so far, is fit again after only being able to play 17 minutes of the qualifiers in the international break earlier this year.

He will compete for a starting spot with Firas Al-Buraikan, who has also found the net three times during this stage of qualifying.

China possible starting lineup:
Yan; Zhang, Zhu, Browning, Zheng; Wang, Xu; Liu, Wu, Hao; Zhang

Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:
Al-Owais; Al-Burayk, Al-Amri, Al-Sahafi, Al-Shahrani; Kanno, Al-Hassan; Al-Muwallad, Al-Najei, Al-Dawsari; Al-Buraikan

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We say: China 0-2 Saudi Arabia

We expect Saudi Arabia to get the win they need in this game and to secure it fairly comfortably. Li Xiaopeng's tenure at the China helm has not got off to a good start and he is missing star man Wu Lei so his side could struggle.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Olly Allen

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a China win with a probability of 37.41%. A win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a China win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Saudi Arabia win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.