Chapecoense and Fluminense will hit the halfway point of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A when the two sides square off at Arena Conda in Chapeco on Tuesday.
Verdao are bottom of the table with seven points and have yet to win a league fixture, while Flu are currently in 12th after squandering a second-half lead against Juventude to draw 1-1.
Match preview
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After winning Serie B in Brazil a year ago, Chape are starting to realise that the competition in the top flight is a lot greater than the sides they faced in 2020.
Last season they lost only five games in the league, but they already have more than double that amount this season as Jair Ventura and his team have a lot of catching up to do, currently nine points back of their nearest competitor in the standings.
At the moment, they are on pace to beat their Serie A record for losses from 2019, when they were beaten 20 times and relegated into Serie B.
While they were able to put together some more respectable results last month, they struggled to maintain their composure when in the lead, squandering three games from winning positions, losing once, while allowing an injury-time equaliser in consecutive fixtures.
Three of their last four games have been against teams right above them in the table, so giving up points in those matches could prove costly for this team in the long run.
Two of their subsequent three encounters will be on their home field, where they have only earned two points this season, despite drawing first blood in their last three home fixtures.
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It is still relatively early days for Marcao at the helm of Fluminense, but after four matches, it remains to be seen if this side are better off or worse than they were under former boss Roger Machado.
Perhaps settling into being the unquestioned leader and motivator will take some time for the former defensive midfielder, who has been with the club since 2014 but has primarily been second in command.
They have yet to lose in the Brasileiro Serie A since their coaching change, but two draws and a win is nothing extraordinary, especially when you consider that they were in a position to win two of those matches.
Flu seem to play with a lot less purpose against teams near the bottom of the table, seemingly afraid to lose games that they should be winning.
So far this year, they have suffered defeats to America Mineiro and Gremio, while they had to fight their way back from a goal down to beat Sport Recife, three teams who are currently in the relegation zone.
While they are safely positioned in the table at the moment, Marcao knows that his side cannot afford too many slip-ups, especially against the teams below them, as they are only four points clear of relegation at the moment.
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Team News
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Chape goalkeeper Tiepo is out with a knee injury, so Keiller is likely to start once again, and he played well last Saturday, making seven stops to collect a clean sheet.
Anselmo Ramon leads the team in goals and assists with three and one respectively, while Anderson Leite scored his first goal of the year in their last home fixture in a draw versus America Mineiro.
Leite was the only player to lose his spot in the starting lineup from their draw with Atletico Goianiense to their match last week against Recife as Leo Gomes took his place in midfield.
Egidio started at left-back for Flu over Danilo last Thursday, with Nonato playing in a wide midfield role rather than Matheus Martinelli.
Lucca has two goals in his last two league games, although his last one cost his team three points as his own goal versus Juve was enough to earn them a draw.
Fred, who is second on the team in goals with two, picked up his first assist of the season in their last match, and goalkeeper Marcos Felipe has only conceded one goal from an opposing player, although the own-goal his team scored on him in the previous game will count as another conceded.
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Busanello, Jordan, Kadu, Ribeiro; Santos; Silva, Denner, Foguinho; Perotti, Ramon
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Xavier, Nino, Claro, Egidio; Cazares, Andre, Yago; Lucca, Fred, Hernandez
We say: Chapecoense 1-0 Fluminense
You have to think that at some point, as bad as Chape have been this season, that they are capable of winning one game, and with their next two games after this one being against title contenders, this might very well be the day that the footballing gods smile on the team at the bottom, who have only scored two fewer goals in the league than Flu.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.78%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
