Wednesday will feature a matchup of first versus worst in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A as Chapecoense welcome Atletico Mineiro into Arena Conda.
Chape will enter this game at the bottom of the table with only 11 points, while Mineiro have a 10-point cushion atop the standings after pulling out a 1-0 win over Internacional this past weekend.
Match preview
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They finally earned a victory last month, but for the most part, it is hard to find a lot of positives for the club from Chapeco this season, who have been poor in their return to Serie A.
Since defeating Bragantino, they have only been able to pick up one point over their next three matches, scoring only once over that time.
This team have struggled to shut down opposing sides all season long, allowing a league-high 36 goals up to this point of the campaign, with their last clean sheet coming in a June 13th match at home to Ceara.
So far this year, only three of their 11 points have come at home and with three of their next four league matches to be played at Arena Conda, it is an area that needs improvement.
Seven of their points this season have come from a losing position, so they have been able to claw their way back into a match and show some resiliency once in a while, while one of those results came against the current league leaders back in June when Chape were able to equalise with 10 minutes remaining.
There are 15 matches remaining, and Jair Ventura knows that his side need to find a lot more consistency in their game as they currently have 13 points to make up to avoid relegation.
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After a heartbreaking elimination to Palmeiras recently at the Copa Libertadores, the focus for Galo shifts to the league for the next little as they aim to increase their lead at the top.
On Saturday, they were able to snatch a late winner in the 79th minute to claim a seventh consecutive league victory at home while not conceding in four successive Serie A matches played at Minerao.
They have been equally sharp defensively on the road as they have been at home, with clean sheets in three successive matches away from home, while they have only allowed 13 goals up to this point of the domestic campaign, the fewest in the league.
Even though they have a comfortable 10-point lead over Palmeiras at the moment, they will be wary of the fact that their next three games are against sides that they failed to beat earlier in the season, squandering two points at home to Chape and coming away with nothing on the road versus Santos and Ceara.
Two of their three defeats so far this year have come when they were the visitors, while three of their four draws so far have come away from home, so you should not expect them to be looking beyond this match, even though on paper it looks like an easy victory.
Their schedule will be a demanding one as they still have the Copa do Brasil to play for and will not have much time to recuperate in between games, with three matches in a week beginning on Wednesday, while they will not have a whole week to rest in between matches from now until the end of the domestic campaign.
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Team News
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Mike has become a clutch performer for Chapecoense, kickstarting their comeback victory against Braga last month with the equalising goal, and he scored his second of the year to give his side a 1-1 draw with Sao Paulo on Sunday, while their goalkeeper Keiller played brilliantly over the weekend, stopping seven of the eight shots that he faced.
Keiller may be counted upon to maintain his high level of play while also remaining healthy as two of the team's reserve goalkeepers are injured, including Vagner, who has missed a long time with a ruptured knee ligament and Tiepo is still out with a knee injury.
The only goal for Ravanelli this season came in their first meeting with Galo, scoring from the penalty spot to earn his team a 1-1 draw.
Keno notched his second of the year to help Atletico slide past Internacional this weekend, while Tche Tche was their lone goalscorer in their first encounter with Chape, his only goal to this point of this domestic campaign.
Hulk continues to show his worth and versatility, with the 35-year-old striker collecting his team-leading seventh assist of the season on Saturday while he also leads them in goals with eight.
Cuca added only one new addition to their starting 11 this past weekend, from the side who started in their Copa Libertadores tie with Palestra as Eduardo Sasha took the place of Eduardo Vargas at forward.
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Ribeiro, Laercio, Derlan, Busanello; Mike, Junior, Ronei, Denner; Geuvanio, Ramon
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Guga, Silva, Alonso, Arana; Savarino, Jair, Allan, Fernandez; Hulk, Costa
We say: Chapecoense 0-3 Atletico Mineiro
No surprise here, these teams are separated by 38 points for a reason, Atletico have conceded the fewest goals, with Chape allowing the most (36).
There have only been seven games in which Mineiro have not come away victorious, and they play three of those teams over the next week so that prior history should have served as a lesson for them not to take any opponent lightly.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 55.99%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 19.32%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 1-0 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
