Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.