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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 51.06%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.
Result | ||
Swansea City | Draw | Cardiff City |
51.06% ( 0.08) | 25.4% ( -0.06) | 23.54% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 49.14% ( 0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.49% ( 0.21) | 53.5% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.97% ( 0.18) | 75.02% ( -0.17) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.02% ( 0.12) | 20.97% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.26% ( 0.19) | 53.73% ( -0.19) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.18% ( 0.1) | 37.82% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.4% ( 0.09) | 74.59% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Swansea City | Draw | Cardiff City |
1-0 @ 12.38% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.68% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 51.05% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.93% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.85% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0) Other @ 1.62% Total : 23.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leicester CityLeicester | 45 | 31 | 4 | 10 | 89 | 39 | 50 | 97 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 45 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 80 | 41 | 39 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 88 | 56 | 32 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 45 | 25 | 9 | 11 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 84 |
5 | Norwich CityNorwich | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 79 | 63 | 16 | 73 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 67 | 47 | 20 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 59 | 9 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 66 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 45 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 62 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 59 | 64 | -5 | 57 |
14 | Watford | 45 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 56 |
15 | Sunderland | 45 | 16 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Millwall | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 56 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 53 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 53 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 50 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 45 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 50 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 45 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 48 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 47 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 45 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 48 | 75 | -27 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 45 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 87 | -55 | 24 |
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