Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Panevezys had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Panevezys win was 1-0 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.

Result
Panevezys	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok
28.49% ( -0.55)	25.12% ( -0.26)	46.4% ( 0.81)

Both teams to score 54.34% (

0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.22% (

0.79)

48.78% (

-0.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.12% (

0.71)

70.88% (

-0.71)

Panevezys Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.83% (

31.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.49% (

67.51%

Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.95% (

0.69)

21.05% (

-0.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.15% (

1.07)

53.85% (

-1.06)

Score Analysis

Panevezys 28.49%

Jagiellonia Bialystok 46.39%

Draw 25.11%

Panevezys	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 4.46% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 2.7% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.9% Total : 28.49%	1-1 @ 11.91% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.11%	0-1 @ 10.22% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 9.29% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 7.97% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.82% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 4.14% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.09) 0-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.08) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.56% Total : 46.39%